 |
 |
|
 |
News for Product
Manufacturers from Hanley Wood CEO Frank
Anton
Please consider: Fannie Mae;
Lehman Brothers; deflation.
Which makes you more nervous when
you consider its impact on the housing market? I'd understand if you said
Fannie Mae or Lehman Brothers, but I'd argue with you. As it is, I'd guess the
typical homeowner or home buyer (of a certain age) thinks Fannie Mae was a
character in the old 'Lil Abner comic strip and couldn't really tell you the
difference between an investment bank and a piggy bank.
Believe me, my intention is not
to insult the typical homeowner or home buyer, nor is it to downplay the big
role Fannie Mae and Lehman Brothers (and other investment banks) played in the
happy drama that was the housing industry from 2001 through 2005 and the
unhappy drama since then. On the contrary, it is to give consumers credit. Just
as most of them knew that housing was as close to a sure thing as any
investment could be from 1950 until 2005—and they acted accordingly,
buying bigger and bigger and more expensive houses throughout that
period—today they know with almost as much certainty that buying a house
is a very risky business. Buy a house today and it could be worth considerably
less tomorrow; that's what most consumers now think.
That fear of ongoing deflation in
housing prices, more than anything else, is what has caused new and existing
home sales to stay in their tailspin, even as mortgage interest rates and
housing prices drop, making housing ostensibly more affordable. This problem is
particularly acute in the existing home market, where so many homeowners are
still living in 2005. They're clinging to unrealistic notions, often reinforced
by real estate agents, about what their houses are worth. And therein lays the
opportunity for builders and building product manufacturers.
Let me explain. Not only is much
of the for-sale inventory of existing homes overpriced, so is much of the
inventory of unsold new homes, which were built on incredibly expensive land.
Now, land prices in most markets have fallen as much as 50 percent from their
peak. That means brave builders can buy land and build truly reasonably priced
and affordably priced housing. In fact, built right and priced right it will
seem bargain priced, and it will take bargain prices to bring buyers back.
Therein lies the opportunity for builders. The opportunity for suppliers is
this: develop new products that help builders lower costs and homeowners lower
maintenance and energy costs.
That's the way to let air out of
the deflationary bubble.
Send
e-mail to Frank Anton
|
|
|
 |
|
News and Trends from Hanley Wood Magazines
Visit
the new REMODELING Online
Completely redesigned, the Web site for REMODELING magazine is more vital
than ever to its core audience.
Special
Report: Industry in Crisis
The home building industry clearly faces a market meltdown that threatens the
very survival of many companies. With this special report, BUILDER aggregates
stories on recent failures, along with information on how to survive these most
troubling of times. (BUILDER Online)
Supply
Side: Making the Grade
David Weekley Homes announces its 2008 Partners of Choice awards, and its
trades chime in on why the builder's evaluative quarterly reports work for
them. (BIG BUILDER, September 2008)
Special
Report: The Future of Wood
Getting an accurate picture of wood's future requires you travel across the
continent visiting logging sites, mills, industry groups, research
institutions, and lumberyards. Here's what ProSales has learned, and what pro
dealers can expect. (ProSales, September 2008)
The
Replacement 100
The industry's best and biggest companies adjust to a slow-growth economy.
(REPLACEMENT CONTRACTOR, September-October 2008)
New
Products from The Remodeling Show 2008
Check out new products straight from the floor of The Remodeling Show, including
winners of the Best New Products awards. (REMODELING, September 2008)
Within
Reach
Universal design standards call for spacious, accessible cabinets.
(MULTIFAMILY EXECUTIVE, September 2008)
Case Study: Leading by Example
Community Housing Partners’ award-winning neighborhood brings community
education and sustainable performance to affordable housing. (EcoHome, Summer
2008)
|
|
Return to top |
|
 |
|
|
 |
|
Housing Statistics and Analysis from Hanley
Wood Market Intelligence
-
Analysis for the Housing Market:
The total number of homes
started for the purpose of residential construction fell again in August to
just 895,000 units, a 6% drop from the level seen in July, and a 33% decline
from the level seen in August 2007. Single-family starts were down 2% from the
level seen last month, 35% below the year-ago level, and 54% below the August
2006 peak. Multifamily housing starts decreased sharply in August, falling by
17% from the level seen last month, but were 2% above the level seen in August
2006. The June figure for multifamily activity was inflated due to changes in
permit issuance procedures that became law on July 1 in New York City. Builders
rushed to get their projects permitted in June in order to avoid having to
abide by the new regulations on July 1st.
-
Non-seasonally adjusted data reflected
decreases in all of the nation's four regions, for all time periods tracked,
except for in the Northeast region, which was affected by the law changes in
New York City.
-
Multifamily construction activity
remains high due to continued strong migration patterns to areas in the South
and West. Even though buyers are either unwilling or unable to purchase a home,
they are still moving in record numbers and renting until the housing situation
improves. This trend has increased demand for rental units in the multifamily
segment. Home builders should monitor local conditions carefully, especially
employment and mortgage rates, as housing demand will vary depending on
economic factors at the local level.
More from Hanley Wood Market Intelligence
|
| Return
to top |
|
|
 |
Hanley Wood
Business Media Launches a New Site to Serve Marketers and Advertisers
Dedicated to helping you develop
the most effective marketing strategies:
-
Product Finder to match your
target audience to our products and brands.
-
Product Demos for more than 15
product categories.
-
Custom Solution information and
examples.
-
Full service Continuing
Education service.
-
Access to Hanley Wood research.
-
Comprehensive source of industry
news.
Visit
HanleyWoodBusinessMedia.com
. |
|
|
|
|
