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News
for Product Manufacturers from Hanley Wood CEO Frank
Anton
It's almost time to do '09 budgets, which probably means you're already trying to figure out what will happen to the housing market next year. Me too, which means I paid particularly close attention to the latest forecast from NAHB's economists, as well as the results of a just-completed Hanley Wood survey of your customers: builders, remodelers, concrete contractors, architects and dealers.
Turns out the economists and your customers see two things eye-to-eye. One, they don't see the market recovery beginning until next summer; and, two, they believe the recovery will start off very slowly. To be more specific, NAHB's forecast shows housing starts hitting bottom in the fourth quarter of this year at an annual rate of 875,000 units, staying there through the first half of 2009, then climbing to an annual rate of 950,000 units in the third quarter and 1 million units in the fourth quarter.
Here's how the 1,200 builders, remodelers, concrete contractors, architects and dealers we surveyed see it: about 75 percent believe the recovery will begin by next summer (remodelers and architects, both residential and commercial, are the most optimistic; big builders are the least optimistic). However, 90 percent of those optimists expect any growth in the market to be somewhere between "a little" and "moderate."
When asked what building product manufacturers could do to help them, the overwhelming majority of builders, remodelers, concrete contractors and dealers responded by saying you should offer either discounts or rebates. As you shake your head and wonder if your customers know about spiraling raw material and transportation costs and your own sales declines, keep repeating, "The customer is always right, the customer is always right ..." Interestingly (if inexplicably), residential and commercial architects asked for more knowledgeable sales reps and more information on green building products. Clearly architects are kinder and gentler than builders, dealers, concrete contractors and even remodelers.
Speaking of information, the Hanley Wood survey also measured how your customers use media to get information about your products, from the beginning of the specifying process to the point of purchase. No matter how you budget next year, I'm pretty certain you'll want the money you dedicate to marketing to work harder and better than ever. Our research can help you make that happen. It will show you how effective print and online advertising are among the different customer groups, as well as how customers use trade shows to gather information, the impact of direct mail and sports marketing, how customers use your Web site and e-mail messaging, and how your sales reps and their peers influence what products customers specify.
There's a huge amount of information available. In fact, there's so much information, we'll present a series of free online seminars for building product marketers and other executives. All you have to do is click here to view the first free, on-demand Web seminar.
Whether your 2009 budget ends up going up, down or sideways, you'll find the research valuable.
Send e-mail to Frank Anton |
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News and Trends from
Hanley Wood Magazines
As We See It
A new "group blog" with regular contributions from CUSTOM HOME staffers keeps readers up to date on news and views from the field.
(CUSTOM HOME Online)
Window Wars
Low-price window companies such as Window World are expanding their dealer networks -- and, many say, changing the nature of the window replacement business. (REPLACEMENT CONTRACTOR, July/August 2008)
Digital Dialogue
Technology lets remodeling companies communicate effectively in-house and on
site. (REMODELING, July 2008)
Pro vs. Consumer: Which Should You Recommend?
With more and more clients enamored of big box prices, it can be hard to
convince them when only pro products will do.(PRO AV, July 2008)
To Go Green, or Not To Go Green
Though the first wave of home building environmentalism petered out as tax
rebates dried up in 1985, another and more nationally vibrant green movement is
alive and kicking today. (BUILDER, July 2008)
Pulling Forward
By embarking on a certification program, members of the Cast Stone Institute
have solidified their product's place in the market. (THE CONCRETE PRODUCER, July 2008)
top choice
Has metal become the gold standard in residential roofing?
(residential architect, July 2008)
Tech Spec: So Hot, It's Cool
In case you missed them on the exhibit hall floor, BIG BUILDER's own Bill Gloede
reviews PCBC's top five "Cool Products" for 2008. (BIG BUILDER, July 2008)
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Developments Affecting the Nation's Biggest Public Builders
June New Home Sales Beat Expectations
The Commerce Department Friday morning reported a better-than-expected 0.6-percent drop
in new single-family home sales in June, but an upward revision in the
seasonally adjusted annual sales rate for May from 512,000 to 533,000 made
June's rate of 530,000 seem palatable.
Home Prices Sink Slightly in May
Home prices declined 0.3 percent nationally in May. Compared to the same period last year, the May figures represent a 4.8 percent annual drop in home prices across the country.
Special Report: Industry in Crisis
With the home building industry clearly facing a market meltdown that threatens the very survival of many companies. BUILDER aggregates stories on recent failures, along with information on how to survive these most troubling of times.
Ryland Stock Dives on Earnings Miss
Shares of Ryland Group fell more than 21 percent in early afternoon
trading Thursday after the company reported a $241.6 million loss for the second quarter that missed Wall Street estimates by a wide margin.
Green Building Regulations Proliferating
AIA study shows a nearly 400 percent increase in counties with green building regulations or mandates.
Foreclosures Climb in Second Quarter
Foreclosure filings occurred on nearly 740,000 properties in the second quarter, a rise of 14 percent compared to the previous quarter.
NLBMDA Picks New President
The National Lumber and Building Material Dealers Association named Michael P. O'Brien, chief operating officer of the Manufactured Housing Institute for the past 10 years, as its new president effective Aug. 11.
Growing Interest in Urban Homeownership Reported
Interest in urban living is on the rise, according to a recent survey -- and it's all because of rising gasoline prices. |
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Housing Statistics
and Analysis from Hanley Wood Market Intelligence
- Analysis for the Housing Market: In July, the NAHB Housing Market Index declined for the third straight month and reached a new all-time low. The index fell two points to 16 in July. The index is down 8 points from its year-ago levels. All the componenet indexes reported monthly declines while reaching fresh all-time lows as well. The index for present conditions of single-family home sales fell one point to 16, while the index measuring single-family home sales in the next six months dropped four points to a reading of 23. The index measuring traffic of prospective buyers reported its third straight monthly decline to a reading of 12.
- Only one out of the four regions reported an increase in home builder sentiment. The Midwest fell the most, dropping 6 points to an all-time low reading of 10, while the West posted a three-point decline to a reading of 13. The South recorded a one-point drop to a reading of 20. The Northeast was the only region to post an increase, gaining two points to a reading of 14.
- Fragile conditions in the financial markets over the past month have hurt sentiment in the housing markets. The continued slowdown in home sales, along with declining consumer confidence and record-high energy prices, have taken a toll on home builder confidence. Increased foreclosures and tighter lending standards also have caused conditions in the housing market to deteriorate in recent months.
More from Hanley Wood Market Intelligence |
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| Free, On-Demand Web Seminar: Media and Marketing's Influence on Buyers of Building Products
Given today's challenging economic environment, it's essential to make sure you're getting the most from your advertising dollars. In the first in our series of free educational Web seminars, we'll share the latest market research about your buyers' most valued resources for purchase information. With this and future webinars, you'll come away with tips and insights you can immediately use to build brand awareness, generate more leads, and drive more sales—all while maximizing your ROI. Click here to view.
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